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Rainfall shocks and risk aversion: Evidence from Southeast Asia

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextPublication details: American Journal of Agricultural Economics; 2024Description: 145-176ISSN:
  • 1467-8276
Subject(s): Online resources: Summary: We analyze how individual risk aversion changes in response to shocks in an agrarian setting, and the role of changes in yields and prices as two potential channels. To do so we specify a theoretical model that describes temporal alterations in risk aversion. Empirically, we test the model's proposition by combining individual-level panel data with historical rainfall data for rural Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rainfall shocks increase individuals risk aversion, whereby the largest effects are observed among households that are net buyers of food commodities. Regarding potential channels, only prices seem to explain-and even then just to a very small extent-the increase in net buyers' risk aversion. Our findings imply that shocks can increase risk aversion, and, in the absence of functioning credit and insurance markets, may ultimately lead to decisions that perpetuate poverty.
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Article Index Article Index Dr VKRV Rao Library Vol. 106, No. 1 Not for loan AI468

We analyze how individual risk aversion changes in response to shocks in an agrarian setting, and the role of changes in yields and prices as two potential channels. To do so we specify a theoretical model that describes temporal alterations in risk aversion. Empirically, we test the model's proposition by combining individual-level panel data with historical rainfall data for rural Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rainfall shocks increase individuals risk aversion, whereby the largest effects are observed among households that are net buyers of food commodities. Regarding potential channels, only prices seem to explain-and even then just to a very small extent-the increase in net buyers' risk aversion. Our findings imply that shocks can increase risk aversion, and, in the absence of functioning credit and insurance markets, may ultimately lead to decisions that perpetuate poverty.

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